Food chain supply: The collateral damage of the Russia- Ukraine war

The extent of Russia and Ukraine conflict has led to an even larger hit on the global harvest. A great degree of impact is felt in the way we imagine the agriculture supply chain in the days to come.

Many nations across the Middle East, South Asia, and North Africa that are currently coping with the large uncertainty of agricultural supply especially post the hit by the pandemic. These areas are also in the battlefield of managing harvest as their primary food source depends on Russia's and Ukraine's plentiful supplies of wheat, corn, and vegetable oil. Understanding the run through of the happenings globally, the specialists say the Russia Ukraine tensions could lead to a noticeable increase in the food prices, ultimately pushing us to witness a rise in global hunger. Following the patterns of the past, Russia and Ukraine conflict is proving to be another example of contention surfacing on the planet when the world can't support it. Hunger rates are increasing around the world, and probably the biggest driver of this inadequacy is the aftermath of manmade wars.

We are in the middle of coping up with the previously hit by the pandemic - Covid-19, that has already resulted in the deaths of a large amount of citizens globally in its wrath, also resulting in the disturbance caused to manage proper supply chains.  With 855 million individuals previously experiencing food instability globally, Russia's invasion of Ukraine comes at a difficult second for experts to resolve the supply chain management. The disturbance in harvest likewise puts Ukrainians - no less than 100,000 of whom have proactively been dislodged - at higher gamble of yearning, further highlighting the repercussions of war on people’s daily bread.

The battlefield of harvest -

Russian President Putin had already made a statement implying a large increase in the food prices with the rise in the fertilizer prices if the West continues to corner Russia and challenge its exports of fertilizers in their attempts to stand for Ukraine. Russia plays its role as one of the biggest exporters of phosphate and nitrogen rich fertilizers that act as the major source of nutrients for multiple crops. These fertilizers supplied from the land of Putin account for up to 13% of harvest globally.

Further to understand how this war has created a major challenge, let us take a look at the current reliance of the world on these two countries for their agriculture supply:

Global exports in 2020:

(Data provided by Vox)

Sunflower seed and oil: Russia - 39%, Ukraine - 18%

Wheat and Meslin: Russia - 18%, Ukraine - 8%

Barley: Russia - 12%, Ukraine - 12%

Fertilizers: Russia - 13%, Ukraine - 1%

Hitting the already recouping landscape of the agriculture supply scenario, the extended duration of this conflict is a direct implication of the global hunger rates going uphill. 

The global impact - 

As far as the tabulations of this upcoming crisis go, let's take a look at the countries that are going to get hit the most. To start with, the Lebanon government is left with only about a month’s supply of wheat for their land. Ukraine being the breadbasket of Europe, the entire belt’s reliance on the supply coming has taken a shake. In Iraq, the unprecedented hike in the food prices have already called for protests by the concerns. Hungary had to take the action of putting a ban on all the grain imports due to the uncalled for prices. The United Nations World Food Program had to end up cutting their supplies to Yemen, and this is just the beginning. In India, the hike of the rates of fertilizers and crude oil has directly affected the input costs that have ultimately reflected on the rising charts of the nation’s food prices. 

Ukraine and Russia account for almost 30% of wheat, 17% of corn and over a portion of sunflower seed oil sent out across the world. The Russia Ukraine conflict bottlenecks the Black Sea ports where freight vessels have been struck by the hammering of different Ukrainian commodities. The blacklisting of Russian ports by transportation organizations globally and the thump on impacts of sanctions have likewise upset the progression of food sources and feeds from Russia, making issues that could worsen further.

Presently, what the intrusion has previously done is move wheat costs by 70% overall. Wheat costs shot to a record $12.94 per bushel. What is coming next, is only a higher graph of the challenges that have been risen